The glacier-collapse at Nanda Devi on Feb 7th, 2021 and the ensuing floods caused enormous destruction and loss of life in Uttarakhand.
One hopes that the Geological Survey of India and other bodies are monitoring the health, volume, water-security and structural-stability of the Himalayan glaciers.
A 2019 study found that along a 2000 km stretch of the Himalayan glaciers, the pace of ice-melting had doubled between 2000–2016 as compared with 1975–2000. (See the figure below). They estimate the current average shrinkage in depth of the glaciers at about 0.5 meter/year.
This 2014 paper estimates the Gangotri glacier having maximum depth of 540 m, upper reach at 350–450 m, lower-ranges at 150–200 m. (see the snippet below).
At the current melt-rate of 0.5 m / year, the Gangotri glacier will disappear at the lower-ranges in about 75 years, at the upper-reach in about 150 years.
If the glacier-melt-rate doubles in the next 15 years, then within the lifetime of most people reading this, the glacier will have disappeared with disastrous consequences for water security in northern India.
The 2019 paper suggests that the monsoon rate has not changed appreciably, and suggests that the mean air temperature increase has accelerated the melting, pointing to climate change as the driver.
The global temperature rise highlighted here shows an upward trend, and does not look favorable to the glacier’s life, per the 2019 paper.
What lifestyle changes can the world make to minimize human-contribution to climate-change? In my talks I recount a mantra for today’s problems: “Reducing one’s carbon footprint is today equivalent to reducing one’s Karmic footprint”. Reduce-Reuse-Recycle — a minimalist consumptive lifestyle can definitely help.
Bhagiratha was a Rishi in ancient India, associated with the river Ganga. He was warned that Ganga was too powerful and would shatter Earth where she landed. Bhagiratha after much penance, gets Mahadeva to bear the load, and was able to tame the river Ganga. Do these accounts encode memories of ice-age era glacier-collapse at Gangotri? What would Bhagiratha do today on inspecting the vanishing glacier at Gangotri?